Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single low-level C-class
x-ray flare occurred. No significant changes were observed in Region
1319 (N11W39), which remained an Eki/beta-gamma. Region 1321
(S14E09), a Cao/beta, showed gradual spot growth during the period.
Region 1324 (N10E63) rotated more fully into view as a 12-spot
Eai/beta group. No new regions were numbered. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (19 – 21 October) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Regions 1319 or 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 147
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01