Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A southern plage region
(S28W14) produced a two-ribbon flare around 17/1900Z associated with
a minor x-ray enhancement and an EIT wave. LASCO images showed a
faint, slow-moving (around 230 km/sec), Earth-directed partial-halo
CME was also associated with the flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (19 – 21 October).
No significant field effects are expected from the CME mentioned
above.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 070
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01