Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An A9 X-ray flare occurred at 18/1200Z with no obvious optical flare association. The visible disk was spotless. Region 1006 (N26W91) rotated out of view during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (19 – 21 October).

III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Oct 069
• Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 069/069/068
• 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01