Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Oct 18 2205 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No solar flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Oct 078
• Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 007/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05