Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Oct 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

October 18, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 18 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Minor B-class activity was
observed during the latter half of the period. A CME erupted from
the northeast limb at approximately 17/2030Z. SXI imagery indicates
a new active region rotating near N07 on the east limb. Region 682
(S13W03) has shown slight decay in both area coverage and magnetic
complexity. Region 683 (S10E08) is a D type group in very slow
growth. New regions 685 (S05E26) and 686 (S20E43) were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 682
and 683. A new region rotating near N07 on the east limb may
increase solar activity levels in the coming days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels
late in the period. Solar wind speed remains below 350 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high,
and have been high since 14 October.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 19 and 20 October.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct