Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Two regions were numbered today. Region 1032 (N17E20) and
Region 1033 (N21E47) were both magnetically classified as Beta
groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. With the emergence of Regions 1032 and 1033,
there is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24 hours. An
isolated unsettled period at mid-latitudes occurred between
18/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (19 November).
Unsettled, with isolated active conditions, are expected on day two
and three (20-21 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov ???
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 079/080/080
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/007-010/011-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01