Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to be quiet for 19 November. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 20 – 21 November creating unsettled conditions with the possibility for isolated active periods for both those days.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Nov 069
• Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 005/005-010/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/30
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/35
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10