Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. Region 923 (S05W61) continues to have the potential for isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (19 – 21 November).

III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Nov 089
• Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05