Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 822 (S07E02) produced an M1/Sf flare which occurred at 18/0034Z. Multiple B and C-class flares were also recorded from Region 822. This region appears to have decayed slightly during the past 24 hours. Several B and C-class x-ray flares were also observed from a source region just beyond the northwest solar limb. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 822 may be capable of producing an isolated major flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 19 November. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 November. Isolated active periods will be possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary crossing. There is a slight chance that weak transient effects resulting from the disappearing solar filament that occurred late on 16 November, may help to enhance the geomagnetic field on 21 November.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

• Class M 60/60/60
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Nov 101
• Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 100/100/095
• 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 005/005-007/007-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/30
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10