Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 18 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 700
(N04W93) produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C3
x-ray flare occurring at 18/1456Z. No sunspots are currently
visible as this region has rotated off the west solar limb. Regions
703 (N13E46) and 704 (N12E75) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may be seen at higher latitudes on 20 and 21
November due to coronal hole effects.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Nov 104
• Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 100/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 002/005-008/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 01/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/30
• Minor storm 01/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10