Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels.  Region 198 (S18E43)
produced an M7.4/1f flare at 18/0208 UTC.  Region 198 has increased
in penumbral coverage and has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  A polarity mixing is evident in
the leader spot and could be developing a weak delta configuration. 
Region 191 (S18W55) is in a slight decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 198 and Region 191 have the potential for
M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to
be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 179
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 175

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  012/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  010/010-008/012-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01