Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 May 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 994 (S12W22) increased in complexity briefly becoming a Cso Beta magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare, particularly from Region 994.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active levels over the next three days, with a chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May-21 May
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 18 May 072
- Predicted 19 May-21 May 072/072/072
- 90 Day Mean 18 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 001/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/012-015/030-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/20
- Minor storm 10/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/09/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/45/30
- Minor storm 15/25/15
- Major-severe storm 01/10/05