Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 May 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
May 18, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 994 (S12W22) increased in complexity briefly becoming a Cso Beta magnetic class.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare, particularly from Region 994.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active levels over the next three days, with a chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 19 May-21 May

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 18 May 072
  • Predicted 19 May-21 May 072/072/072
  • 90 Day Mean 18 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 001/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/012-015/030-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/20
  • Minor storm 10/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/09/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/45/30
  • Minor storm 15/25/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.