Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1173
(S29E14) produced a single B3 X-ray event at 18/1145Z. New Region
1175 (N13W09) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels for the next three days (19 – 21
March). A chance for C-class activity exists all three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (19 – 21 March).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 088
Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 080/085/090
90 Day Mean 18 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01