Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless. No flares were observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet on day 1 (19 March). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 to 3 (20-21 March).

III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Mar 069
• Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 001/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01