Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are two simply structured spotted regions on the visible disk. New Region 862 was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective just after 18/0700Z. A period of minor storm conditions were observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 18/0900 and 1200Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels though 19 and 20 March. There is a chance for isolated periods of minor storm conditions through the geoeffective stage of the favorably positioned coronal hole. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 21 March as the coronal hole wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Mar 072
• Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 070/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 015/020-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/35/30
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 15/10/05