Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 18 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
743 (S08W44) produced the largest event of the period, a C1 x-ray
event that occurred at 18/0235 UTC. A magnetic gamma structure has
become apparent in the lead portion of the spot group. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Mar 096
• Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 008/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 03/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01