Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 18, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 18 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
743 (S08W44) produced the largest event of the period, a C1 x-ray
event that occurred at 18/0235 UTC. A magnetic gamma structure has
become apparent in the lead portion of the spot group. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 18 Mar 096
  • Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 095/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 008/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 005/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 03/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.