Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 18, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 574 (S02E43) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M1/Sf occurring at 18/0517Z. Multiple lesser B and C-class flares
occurred in this region today. Sunspot area coverage continues to
show a steady increase. Newly numbered Region 578 (N15E76)
currently shows a single sunspot. Even so, several B and C-class
flares were observed from this region today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 574 continues to be capable of
producing M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief
active period was observed between 18/0000 and 0300Z at the middle
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 21 March
may experience isolated active conditions due to the combination of
a solar sector boundary crossing and the potential of a glancing
blow from the C1 flare and related CME from yesterday.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 18 Mar 115
  • Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 120/120/115
  • 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/008-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/30
  • Minor storm 05/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.