Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S15W53) produced
a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at
17/2139Z. Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at
690 millionths. Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42)
showed signs of decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from
17/2100Z to 18/0300Z. Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z
to 18/0600Z. This elevated activity was due to persistent effects
from the 13 and 14 June CMEs. The remainder of the period showed a
steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels
are expected on 20 – 21 June.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 118
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 115/110/095
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 036/055
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 008/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 30/15/10
Major-severe storm 25/05/05