Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1234
(S16W61) produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the
period, the largest of which was a C3/Sn at 17/2342Z. Region 1234
showed an increase in interior spots and maintained a simple beta
magnetic configuration. Region 1236 (N17E18) showed a gradual loss
of trailer spots during the period, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. New Region 1237 (S15E53) was numbered early
in the period and was classified as a simple Axx-type. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (19 – 21 June). There will also be a chance for
an isolated M-class flare during days 1 – 2 (19 – 20 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain at quiet levels on day 1 (19 June). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 – 3
(20 – 21 June), with a chance for brief active periods, due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 20/20/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 099
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01