Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Jun 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 999 (S03E37) remains stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for days one and two (19-20 June), returning to quiet levels on day three (21 June) as the high speed stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Jun 065
• Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 010/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01