Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 19 June. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with minor storm periods possible, on 20-21 June as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position,

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Jun 067
• Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 008/010-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/30
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 15/20/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/15