Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Region 1520 (S17W89), set to
rotate off the west limb today, produced all of today’s flare
activity, consisting of two C3 class events. Region 1523 (S28W51)
showed slight decay, while the remaining Regions 1524 (S16E37) and
newly numbered 1525 (S22E36) were quiet and stable. No Earth
directed CME’s were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar Activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next 24 hours
until 1520 rotates further around west limb. Days two and three are
expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at generally quiet levels for the
entire period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
17/1715Z continued throughout the period. The peak value observed
was 136 PFU at 18/0600Z after which the flux levels were generally
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to end on 19 July.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 30/10/05
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 80/10/01
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 110
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 009/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 007/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05