Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 19 July as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. Expect unsettled to active conditions with possible isolated periods of minor storming on 20 – 21 July due to the ensuing coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 18 Jul 070
- Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 002/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/010-012/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/15
- Minor storm 05/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05