Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. At 18/1912Z, an impulsive
M1/1n was observed from Region 1401 (N16E27). At 18/1230Z, Region
1399 (S23E17) produced a B9 x-ray event. A slow-moving,
partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the SSE limb, first observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1325Z. Model output indicated the
potential for Earth impact beginning late on 22 January. New Region
1407 (N17E13) emerged on the disk as a B-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (19 – 21 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind velocities, as
measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased during the past 24
hours from a high of about 450 km/s to a low of near 375 km/s by the
end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the majority of day
one (19 January). By late on 19 January, and through day two (20
January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods. This increase in activity
is due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result of
the 16 January CME. By day three (21 January), the field is
expected return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 148
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 150/150/155
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/006-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/10