Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N26E37) showed a slight increase in area and was classified as a
Cso beta-gamma group. Region 1147 remained the sole source of
today’s occasional to isolated B-class flares. Region 1148 (S28W46)
is currently classified as a Cro-beta group with two spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (19-21 January). There is a chance for
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (19-21
January).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 081
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01