Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Jan 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N26W83) produced a
C2.1 flare at 17/2233Z. An uncorrelated C4.9 flare occurred at
18/2039Z. Region 1040 was classified early today as a Dho-beta group
with four spots. Sunspot observations decayed as Region 1040
continued to rotate off the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible. There remains a
slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on day one (19 January). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions at high latitudes,
are expected on day 2 (20 January) as a coronal hole moves into a
geoeffective position. Predominantly quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (21 January).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 082
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01