Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 848 (S18E37) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours into a D-type group with minor magnetic mixing. No significant changes were noted in the remaining two sunspot regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from new Region 848.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor storm period between 18/0900 – 1200Z. A short period of southward IMF Bz accounted for the storm conditions. Solar speed was slightly enhanced, ranging between 500 – 550 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Jan 086
• Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 010/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 010/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01