Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the period. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast period (19 – 20 February). By day three (21 February), predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Feb 070
• Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 005/005-005/008-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/25
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/30
• Minor storm 01/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01