Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No sunspots are visible on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions are possible on 19 February due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 18 Feb 079
- Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/003
- Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 010/012-006/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05