Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 18 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Spotless
active Region 556 (N15W80) produced the largest event during the
period, a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 18/1708Z. Several lesser
B-class flares comprised the remainder of the recorded activity
today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
(neared very high) levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 18 Feb 098
- Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 100/095/100
- 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 004/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/25
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
