Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 18, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 18 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Spotless
active Region 556 (N15W80) produced the largest event during the
period, a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 18/1708Z. Several lesser
B-class flares comprised the remainder of the recorded activity
today. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
(neared very high) levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 18 Feb 098
  • Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 100/095/100
  • 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 004/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.