Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C3 at 17/2255Z from Region 1376 (N20W18). New Region
1381 (S18E19) was also responsible for low level activity. New
Region 1382 (S18E25) was also assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (19-21
December).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 128
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 128/128/128
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 006/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 10/10/01