Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 18, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N17W110) produced
two C-class flares during the period. The largest of these was a
long-duration C4 flare at 18/0548Z, with an associated Type-II radio
sweep with an estimated velocity of 545 km/s. SOHO C3 imagery
observed a partial-halo CME at 18/0600Z. This CME is not expected to
be Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an unsettled
period observed at 18/0600Z. An enhancement of the greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at around 18/0800Z and
was associated with the long-duration C4 flare at 18/0548Z. The
enhancement peaked around mid-period, then gradually decreased.
Today’s Penticton 10.7 cm Flux value was estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (19-21
August).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 081
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 081/080/080
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.