Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on day one (19
August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 August) as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels
are expected on day three (21 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 067
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  015/012-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01