Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new region, rotating into view near S05 on the east limb, produced occasional B-class flares. The remainder of the disk is spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Early indications are that the region rotating into view on the SE limb will have C-class flare potential.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 380 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole may produce occasional unsettled periods over the next few days.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Aug 068
• Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/012-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01