Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2007
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new region, rotating into view near S05 on the east limb, produced occasional B-class flares. The remainder of the disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Early indications are that the region rotating into view on the SE limb will have C-class flare potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 380 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced solar wind flow from a coronal hole may produce occasional unsettled periods over the next few days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 18 Aug 068
- Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 002/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01