Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 18, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. Region 904 (S13W42) produced a couple of B-class flares today. This region continues to be large, but has lost some of its magnetic complexity in the trailing spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. An active period was observed between 18/0300Z – 18/0600Z. A weak shock was observed by ACE at approximately 18/1550Z. Following the shock, the solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 360 km/sec to about 420 km/sec. However, the IMF remained predominantly northward. There was a 5 nT sudden impulse observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 18/1644Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels, with possible isolated major storm conditions on 19 August, due to the full halo CME observed on 16 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20 August, due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on 21 August.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug Class M 10/10/10

  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 18 Aug 089
  • Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 090/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 004/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 025/025-015/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/20
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/25
  • Minor storm 25/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.