Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Two low level C-class solar events were observed today from
around the southeast limb, from a yet to be numbered active region.
The remaining 5 sunspot regions, currently on the visible disk, have
remained stable and quiet. Three CME’s were observed in the past 24
hours, however none of them appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (18-20 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (18-19
September). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (20
September) as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream is
forecast to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 102
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/15/20