Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with two periods of
unsettled conditions from 0000Z-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet with isolated periods of unsettled
conditions for day one (18 September). This activity is due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On days two and three
(19-20 September), the geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 069
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 069/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01