Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a minor storm period observed by Boulder Magnetometer from 0900 – 1200Z. Solar wind speed increased to about 500 km/s during the reporting period due to the geoeffective coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 18 September due to continuing effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 – 20 September.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Sep 078
• Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01