Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Sep 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
September 18, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Sep 17 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W50) produced an M9/2n flare at 0605 UTC. The event included a radio burst of 1,000 sfu at 2695 MHz (tenflare) plus additional bursts across the spectrum. The event apparently did not include a CME. The region, though still potent, has declined in white light and simplified slightly in its magnetic structure. Newly assigned Region 810 (N10E78) rotated into view.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808, though decaying, is still capable of energetic activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was at very high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep

  • Class M 70/70/70
  • Class X 30/30/30
  • Proton 30/30/30
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 17 Sep 104
  • Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 100/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 011/018
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.