Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A new, unnumbered region on
the northeast limb produced numerous C-class events during the
period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 17/0802Z. The other
regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for during the next
three days (18 – 20 Oct). Region 1591 (N07E07) and the new region
on the limb are the only regions that show any potential for M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind velocity measured at the ACE spacecraft increased from around
350 km/s to around 500 km/s at 16/2300Z. The solar wind then slowly
decreased from around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 440
km/s. These signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from
a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18 – 20
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 135
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05