Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
x-ray flares occurred during the period. Regions 1314 (N27W30) and
1319 (N10W26) showed minor intermediate and trailer spot development
during the period. Regions 1314 and 1319 were classified as a
Cso/beta and Eki/beta-gamma, respectively. New Regions 1323 (N23E52)
and 1324 (N11E80) were numbered. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (18 – 20 October) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1319.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 – 20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 153
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01