Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flare
activity was observed. However, isolated eruptive activity was
observed in a plage region near S28W01. EIT wave activity and weak
x-ray enhancements were associated with the eruptions. Thus far,
there are no indications of Earth-directed CME activity associated
with the eruptions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 – 20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 071
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01