Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated periods of minor storming may occur at high latitudes on day three (20 Oct) at the expected peak of the high-speed stream influence.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Oct 067
• Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/010-010/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/35
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10