Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no sunspots on the visible disk today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind slowly declined to near 370 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 18 and 19 October. Active and minor storm periods are expected on 20 October as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Oct 070
• Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/008-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/40
• Minor storm 01/01/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/50
• Minor storm 01/05/30
• Major-severe st