Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Oct 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Oct 17 2205 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Oct 078
- Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 007/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
