Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Oct 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 158 (S08E11) produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3.5/Sf that occurred at 17/1207 UTC. Penumbral growth was seen in the trailing cluster of spots in this northeast-southwest orientated spot complex. A weak gamma magnetic structure also became evident today. Several lesser C-class flares were also attributed to this region. Region 149 (N14W33) showed slight decay and produced a single optically correlated long duration event, flare maximum reached C3.0/Sf at 17/1805 UTC. Weak magnetic gamma structure seen yesterday is no longer apparent. New region 162 (N25E76) was assigned today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 149 and 158 are capable of producing low level M-class flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period occurred between 17/0000-0300 UTC at high latitudes. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on day one due to elevated solar wind speed. Day three may see active conditions in response to a relatively small, yet favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Oct 179 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 182 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/015-008/012-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/30 Minor storm 10/05/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/05
