Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1126 (S31E07) has grown is sunspot number and areal
coverage but remained quiet and stable. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (18-20 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a decrease in
solar wind speed from 540km/s to 440km/s as effects of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream subside. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (18-20
November).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 091
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 090/090/088
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01