Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A B1.5 flare occurred at
17/1259Z, most likely originating from the new emerging flux region
near N19E68.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for days one and two (18-19
November). Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated
active periods, are expected late on day three (20 November). The
increase in activity is expected as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 077
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 078/079/080
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 000/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/006-005/007-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01