Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 17 2243 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 974 (N13W21) was classiefied as a Dao, Beta-Gamma magnetic type at 0300Z. Subsequent reports have identified it as a spotless plage region.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-Class flare from region 974.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet during 18-19 Nov, increasing to unsettled to occasionally active by 20 Nov as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Nov 070
• Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10